National Bureau of Statistics data show that in January the consumer price index (CPI) rose 4.9%, chain rose 1.0%, excluding the effect of factors out of the Spring Festival, the data did not show the previous month, prices accelerated upward trend. Analysts believe that prices rose less than expected in January was mainly caused by food prices, but the peak is hard to determine the price rise to the emergence of inflationary pressure in China is still quite a lot in the first half.
Why the CPI rose less than expected
From the chain point of view, January CPI rose 1.0% in the last year the chain the third highest price increase in January. However, if compared with the historical data, the month in the past three years, the Spring Festival chain CPI rose 2.6%, respectively, 0.9% and 1.0%. The current price chain did not show significantly higher gains momentum, analysts say, it at least means that the previous upward trend of prices continued to accelerate been checked.
State Research Center Institute of Finance, deputy director of Ba, said recently, in a continuous increase in reserve ratio and interest rates under the influence of the current aggregate demand has to fall, in this context can not be sustained rise in inflation. Price data from January's point of view, can be expected in January, February CPI is probably the high point of the first half and even full-year high, while the strength of monetary tightening will also be the most severe.
In addition, the State Statistical Bureau updated the base CPI price index weights sequence and composition, CPI data, the degree of convergence is yet to be verified. January CPI data in the interpretation, it will inevitably take into account this factor. CICC's research report that, CPI program of the new weight of the ring than the increase of 0.05 percentage points, which can only partially explain the CPI lower than expected. January food prices than the Central rose 2.8%, non-food prices rose 0.2%, in particular, rates of non-food price increases slowed this year will help to reduce market concerns about inflation likely to rise significantly.
Survey program in the CPI to adjust the same time, the National Bureau of Statistics decided to January statistics from the industrial producer price reform, that is, from the original producer price index (PPI) to industrial producer prices. Data show that industrial producer prices in January rose 6.6%, the highest in nearly 8 months since a new high. Analysts Accordingly, this shows that the future imported inflation and non-food prices and the possibility can not be excluded, the current stabilization of inflation is too early to judge.
CITIC Securities analyst Zhu Jian Fang, chief macroeconomic view, since the fourth quarter of 2010, economic growth rebounded, strong domestic demand growth, and increased production demands, boosting the production prices. In addition, the recent non-energy commodities in particular, the sharp rise in commodity prices, but also to promote the domestic production prices. Currently the major non-food CPI rise driven by industrial producer prices, the future CPI PPI will also have some conduction.
National Bureau of Statistics data show that compared with the original statistical programs, the introduction of new weights calculated from the January producer prices of industrial chain, an overall index were 0.03 and 0.05 percentage points lower.
inflation The CPI increase is the high point has emerged, analysts believe that the Spring Festival on February price increases will impact. From March onwards, the impact of price hikes will be strengthened. This view from the first half at least, prices peaked and gradually decline trend is not obvious.
Shun Gao Shanwen, chief economist for the securities that, in January because of low food prices rose more from the technical level, that includes the rise of statistical data is most obvious in late January or the last 1 week of data. The current non-food prices rose still stronger chain, while food prices beyond the historical trend may not mean the end. From this logic, February CPI data may back up more than 5%, 5.4% or so.
Noise. The Chinese New Year effect may cause some statistical deviation, while inflation rose also by statistical methods of data adjustment. Although the CPI year on year increase was lower than expected, but the future is still a need for more tightening measures introduced. Current total demand growth is strong, while growth in external demand in recent months has also been accelerated, thereby further increasing the pressure of aggregate demand growth. At the same time, despite the drought on food production is likely not the actual impact of so many people worried about a serious, but this may change people's expectations of food and food prices.
Retrospect, chief macroeconomic analyst at SW is that if food prices rose less than expected, will lead to annual CPI increase of 4.5% more than originally forecast to be lower. But it is worth noting that the impact of drought on food remains to be seen, which may form a new food price shocks. The world economy and to the good economic situation in China, will lead to non-food prices rose more than expected. Reporter Xiao-Dong Han
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