Tuesday, November 16, 2010

RMB appreciation opportunities and risks

 I am still very hard during the festival, hosted a dinner for about eleven nephew to study in Britain, October 2 to go for grandma, grandpa, Lord of milk, the mother grave, today we still have to visit a sick cousin and other people's leisure and holiday in my terms is still hard, tiring, but I still find time for everyone to write a few words, gave me has always been concerned about the bloggers, time constraints, there is no depth to write something, only for your reference!
to present trend, the RMB appreciation seems to have become an inevitable trend,cheap UGG boots, this phase of RMB appreciation has begun to benefit from the performance of varieties, while the negative impact of RMB appreciation is also weak evidence of stock, the new situation and new situation prompted us to further study. everything advance the legislation without prejudging the waste, although I do not like the fundamentals, but the fundamentals still appear to be a big change for all possible new situation and new intimate knowledge of the situation in order to devise strategies in a volatile stock market. < br> appreciation of the renminbi or equipment will be resource stocks liquidity more dependent on imports and industry constitute long-term positive; on a large external debt of U.S. industry will have a one-time foreign exchange gains,UGG shoes, short-term positive; while the export-oriented industry and the impact of international product prices of industry is more intense, long-term negative.
key recommendation of the king at this stage the reason for the scarcity of resources stocks continued to perform eye-catching, the nature of reason is the appreciation of RMB. The market focus from containing 'Li' in Energy stocks gradually transferred to the resource stocks, and the more speculation there is more heat, gradually warming up, see mine on the up trend, a phenomenon worthy of our focus, and even some of the rich mineral resources have gradually take a good form of large-cap stocks, This Festival is also a section I want to focus on the object of operation, the proposed depth of all! for the coal sector itself because it is non-renewable resources, strategic prominence, many countries have banned coal exports, while China's apparent lack of protection of natural resources vision , hours of Fushun coal mine as I famous, now almost empty mine, so that uncontrolled exploitation of resources, future generations endless troubles! earth is just a phenomenon only, any resource countries should increase protection, limit large-scale exports . coal stocks from the perspective of appreciation are neutral species,UGG bailey button, but the strategic and underestimate the value of the terms of the current market, I think after the holiday may increase the concern of the plate.
China's imports of iron ore has been half of the gross domestic consumption; domestic consumption of imported oil for almost 1 / 3, due to the appreciation of the RMB against the U.S. dollar, the Chinese enterprises to import these raw material costs will be reduced accordingly, which will bring the country to import these resources as raw materials related to the stock performance of listed companies and their investment value has improved significantly. Once the main market consensus, resulting in the above expectations,Discount UGG boots, it will advance the relevant industry and related buying shares of listed companies, thus promoting the industry and the company's share price up. Similar construction machinery, aviation, paper, steel stocks a larger proportion of imported iron ore stocks, etc., are to benefit species of RMB appreciation.
the trend of the real estate industry a greater impact on the stock market, and the recent weakness has been varieties, plus appreciation macro paradox of how this affects the plate? RMB appreciation means that the domestic economy as a whole to better investment opportunities and the benefits are relatively significant, so there will be a lot of foreign investment into the domestic market through various channels, the stock market and real estate market because of liquidity of these funds will be focused better place, eventually leading to rising stock market, real estate prices, which in Japan and Taiwan markets behave more obvious. The regulation of the real estate market countries, I personally think that is essentially the only restrictions on real estate prices rose too fast, China's national economy's dependence on the property, and China's huge rural to urban migration have contributed to the long-term bull market in Chinese real estate market, which is different from any one country , measured with the experience of foreign countries in China is totally inappropriate! my humble opinion is: first-line real estate market (in Beijing, Shanghai led), like the stock market's high-priced stocks, have pushed up short-term signs of the possible existence of shallow harmonic sideways , but taking into account the scarcity of long-term value is still there; the second and third tier cities, how much real estate there is only increase the problem, Shenyang, for example, highlight the strategic position, the revitalization of Northeast China's Shenyang concept turned out great, with the first-tier cities gap between the outrageous prices can only be dropped does not exist the possibility of compensatory growth, Shenyang slightly better towards the new flats as long as the sale of both the basic is empty, buy are not buy, talk about what to drop? The island area as out of print Hunnan zone of Changbai I personally think that there are double the gains over the next space, long-term trend that is inverted several times to do. State regulation of the real estate market should focus on guard against foreign speculative hot money inflows and restrictions on real estate based, to improve those real estate taxes, limited companies and the accumulation of hot money speculation of land is a good way to raise the down payment now introduced a policy can only have real needs of the 'poor' hit, basically no significant impact on the speculators, the national think-tank experts gathered, why repeat a bad hand? do not understand it.
appreciation less impact on the banking industry, due to the current listing of joint-stock commercial banks deposit and lending business accounted for a smaller proportion of RMB appreciation on the direct impact of bank profits limited. the other is like food and beverages, highways, oil, petrochemical, shipping, ports and so the overall impact of currency appreciation is not the business, but not general judgments, is also conducive to a good sub-industry of the bad points, for example, RMB appreciation on the port, highways and other transportation services provide no direct impact on the industry, and foreign shipping companies will be subject to competitive pressures fleet. As for auto companies, the currency appreciation is mixed, buying parts from abroad, the appreciation of help to reduce costs; but it also makes imports Automobile prices fell, the impact of domestic cars increased, so the specific analysis of individual enterprises, but also affecting the business model. Due to space constraints, the king did not intend to focus on the plate is no longer introduced.
people to currency appreciation hardest hit industries is the foreign trade, textiles, garments, home appliances industry, RMB appreciation will largely weaken the product's competitive advantage, a greater impact on company performance. In particular, foreign trade, through the reduction of export tax rebates, foreign trade enterprises have very low profit levels, many companies just increase sales through exports, in order to reduce fixed costs per unit of product, very little room for further price cuts. As foreign trade enterprises in the industrial chain in an inferior position, is difficult to import a stronger yuan access to excess profits, but the export business would suffer heavy losses, therefore, subject to the effect of export tax rebate reduction, if the yuan to further appreciate, the majority of foreign trade enterprises will be at a loss of edge. China's textile and apparel industry with high dependence on foreign , sensitive to changes in the exchange rate, the domestic textile and garment industry concentration is very low, intense competition, companies are generally more difficult to revalue the negative effect of the transfer to the customer, the RMB appreciation on the textile and garment greater negative impact on listed companies. RMB appreciation on the home appliances and textile industry, the impact is similar to general appreciation for the high energy content of the labor-intensive low-tech enterprises, the impact is not small, and in these enterprises in most low-income families gathered in the Chinese yuan so much long-term rate of appreciation of the negative impact of the state shall not be underestimated, for those who only know how to grasp the simple processing technology, high-tech labor force is a fantasy, if bankruptcy or downsizing, low-income families was devastating, and countries without a long-term considerations or simply succumb to external pressure?
general appreciation of the currency to raise resources, real estate valuation, to import raw materials, mainly large U.S. companies and the industry is relatively favorable external debt, and for export-oriented based industry is bad. RMB appreciation on China's economy is profound, short term harm than good, long term change in China, only the low end, the extensive mode of economic growth in order to gradually reduce the currency appreciation of their harm to the economy . as a professional trader, our focus is: good concept as long as the appreciation of the renminbi has continued to intervene in the stock funds, we will short-term intervention, the RMB appreciation as long as the bad stocks continued outflow of capital we will firmly the phenomenon of evasion, avoidance benefits or reduce damage, as has absolute control over the funds of investors like micro-enterprises, which pages, where stocks allow us to make money we where to vote, as long as the concept of the market is good for us, so for traders to follow the market trends speaking, of course, is appreciation of the renminbi big plus for us! I like the stock long before the last day of the Red Sea in the introduction of the stock pool!
I Caishuxueqian, but also a rush to finish this article more difficult, if inappropriate welcome criticism and right when the initiate only for your reference! 

No comments:

Post a Comment