China's stock market and the 2008 rescue of policy analysis

 China's stock market and the 2008 rescue of policy analysis
---- 2008 inventory of the Chinese securities market law, then the host
total:
financial and securities core of modern economy, capital market is to achieve financing and investment and the optimal allocation of resources an important site feature .2008 financial crisis sweeping the globe, the fully exposed the modern financial system and capital market failure, to the entire community and investors the enormous risk and disaster.
2008 年December 6, came into being the Securities Law of China Law Society, from the date of birth to face the observation and study of how the system level, the legal aspects of the financial crisis, defense capital market risk of the outbreak of the reality of the task system .
this end, our organization will be part of the securities law experts, wrote and launched the , induction, trying to get to full of uncertainty in 2009 the development of China's capital market enlightenment and Mirroring.
General Moderator:
Guo Feng (China Law Securities Law Research Association. Native of Sichuan , JD, Professor, Central University of Finance and Law School Dean)
the topic Moderator: Dong Ansheng (Securities Law of China Law Society, vice president of Renmin University of China Law School)
If the host:
Review 2008 China's stock market, the mood may be, as most investors turn of the year thanks to the widespread this winter, the Chinese stock market experienced in 2006 -2007 at the end of the bull market, the entering 2008 highly representative of the bear market phase, and its fluctuation can be summarized as the broader market fell unilateral process of gradual decline crazy. heavy loss of investor confidence resulted in a significant stock market decline, expect extremely pessimistic investor psychology. to stabilize the stock market, China's government unveiled a series of bailout policies, to a certain extent, played a positive role. However, the stock market crash of 2008, the deep reason? its exposed during the development of China's stock market, what problems? how to rescue policy to build on the healthy development of securities markets to build and improve the design of the system, then become a serious issue we must face.
What a result from the collapse of the fruit?
back the development of China's stock market in recent years from the pattern of point of view, starting from June 2005 into the Shanghai stock market that slow the bull market, after rising slightly in 2006 to 2007, then rise into the wild bull market in October 2007 reached a record high. The into 2008, the Shanghai and Shenzhen began lingering bear market, during which the only relevant in the management department issued a policy to rescue the market rebounded slightly after a few times, most of the time it is unilateral dropped. If from 2007 the highest point of the date, to October-November 2008 the local minimum, the Shanghai Index and Shenzhen into a mean decrease of more than 70%, such bitter experience, in the history of the development of the stock market only in March 1993 to the August 1994 bear market can be shoulder to shoulder with them.
bitter experience, of course, the stock market crash of 2008 brought great damage to property investment on the market and a serious psychological blow, but in-depth analysis of its causes and to reveal the development of China's stock market potential problems during the party as a priority. Specifically, China's stock market crash of 2008 mainly due to the background of market can be summarized as two aspects of domestic and international, the domestic terms:
First, China's stock market transactions single species. with the international financial markets than in developed countries, the lack of stock index futures and other important derivatives of securities can only do more to spot trading pattern, resulting in a lack of market risk aversion and stable market trading tools, investors only in the broader market rises to make money. due to lack of short mechanism and hedging transactions to evade the market systemic risk, so in the broader market slump,UGGs, investors can only choose to leave or continue to hold-up flesh, losses will be inevitable. In other words, there is no risk management tools will lack the stability of the stock market itself, carry the risk of poor, the real economy as the country changes and the international financial environment, rising for losing streak prone to market conditions, China's stock market changes since 2005, vividly illustrated this point. Therefore, the rich variety of market transactions, the introduction of stock index futures and other important derivatives, the introduction of short-mechanism is to stabilize the stock market prices, the only way to promote the healthy development of the stock market.
Second, the size of the non-lifting of the ban. 5, 2005 months since the reform of the shares, the split share very quickly, with the basic completion of the share reform and the limited sales period approaches, the size of non-market circulation is increasing. According to statistics, about the size of the total non-equity is the stock market float caps of 1.5 times, and the general commitment to the split share structure reform, restrictions on sale for two years, which means that after nearly 20 years of development in China's stock market needs in just two years time the size of non-rapid digestion and scale to 2.5 times. Obviously, this is contrary to the basic law of market economy, and its stock market led to a serious gap between demand and supply of funds. As the size of the circulation of non-significantly increased in the short variety of market transactions, the number of supply,UGG boots cheap, resulting in the stock market can not be resolved generated huge demand for funds, fixed time, the market can only decrease response, the stock market fell sharply in 2008 to solve the full circulation of the accumulation of risk in our history must pay the price.
Third, in recent years the process of development of market economy the very existence of the bubble. listed false, deceptive, false and even market manipulation is nothing new performance, market valuation seriously inflated. In 2006-2007 the sky behind the bull market of prosperity there is in fact between the real economy and the virtual economy is seriously out of the basic risk, combined with good market investors blindly follow the trend of the next, resulting in a weak stock market based on the castles in the air appeared in the state, and once the market environment changes, the hurricane hit, the beautiful surface bound to collapse in a short burst of castles in the air. Thus, for listed companies improve the credit rating of the stock market and risk control mechanism will undoubtedly become one of the issues worth considering.
fourth, 2008, is prone to natural disasters in the stock market drop one of the factors must be mentioned. we all know, the stock market as a representative of the virtual economy reflects the trend of the real economy, and the occurrence of major natural disasters, to some extent bound to affect the real economy and thus affect the stock market, the point goes without wordiness.
From an international perspective, the stock market in China in 2008 is undoubtedly the most influential factors affecting the global financial crisis in the United States. the nature of general terms, the U.S. financial crisis is actually a low credit mortgage (ie times grade bonds) caused waves in the United States in the context of monetary policy, the appropriate derivatives amplified the outbreak of the currency speculation bubble crisis, the contemporary trend of economic integration, the rapid development of the global environment of the real economy and international financial markets have a huge negative impact. from the perspective of China's securities market, China's stock market crash of 2008 and the U.S. financial crisis has a very close relationship, specifically:
First, from the environmental point of view in recent years, the International Monetary , the dollar's continued devaluation of the increasing pressure on RMB appreciation and the appreciation of the yuan is a direct result of a large number of foreign The Chinese government has to tighten monetary policy in the context of lower capital investment in the currency market. On the other hand, when the U.S. financial crisis, the U.S. parent company in the event of insufficient funds, while its natural home of all cross-border foreign Savior, including of course in China, collapse.
Second, in addition to the above, the U.S. financial crisis a major impact on the Chinese stock market investors also expect a major blow to market psychology. Since the linkage between international financial markets, which have already entered the lingering bear market China's stock market suffered another hit investor confidence, crisis A shares of the stock market crash of convergence vivid psychological reaction to generate a panic down. to say that pessimism on the psychological expectations has spread and become the market mainstream. and from another perspective, the development of China's stock market a relatively short history, less than 20 years is far from sufficient to establish a system to improve stock market, and the U.S. stock market derivatives highly developed than China's stock market still has not the introduction of the main types of securities derivatives. Thus, the U.S. financial crisis for China's stock market stock market and even lessons for the development of a more sounded the alarm,Discount UGG boots, the development of financial markets depends on financial innovation, the development of derivatives but also to match to synchronize the systemic regulation. Therefore, the process of the future development of China's securities market for derivative securities to establish a sound and effective regulatory mechanism, it has become another issue worthy of further analysis.
above, complex of factors led to the stock market crash of 2008, the trend with the market, many investors bear market has given an enormous loss of property, but the overall level, the same as also the development of China's stock market had a baptism. It allows people from blind fanaticism out of optimism in the calm, reflective and cautious view with a more rational way to re-examine the stock market's development process, to address our many problems that exist in the securities market; it provides a vivid managers interpretation to enable them to better understand the complicated stock market of the potential thrown a wrench.
second bailout in 2008 of policy analysis
the spread of financial crisis in the United States, the world's countries have introduced the appropriate rescue measures Against the backdrop, in the face of 2008 , including:
(a), September 19, 2008, rescue positive holdings of central enterprises to support or repurchase shares of listed companies
2008 年 September 18 evening, the Ministry of Finance, State Administration of Taxation announced that starting from September 19 securities (stocks) means the collection of stamp duty from the existing bilateral tax adjustment for unilateral tax paid by the Licensor by 1p. This is the second April 24, 2008 securities (stocks) to adjust the stamp duty rate from 3p to 1p, the stamp duty to make our country a substantial adjustment in the second . the same day, Huijin announced that it will purchase in the secondary market work independently, in construction of three lines of stock, starting from the day related to market operations. In this regard, the SASAC Director Li Rongrong said that SASAC to support central enterprises under the holdings of their own development needs of holding shares in listed companies, support the central holding of listed companies repurchase shares of companies.
the face of the negative impact of U.S. subprime mortgage crisis the expansion of the relevant administrative departments of the three major stock market measures of short-term positive effect Needless to say, Sept. 19, a strong rebound in Shanghai and Shenzhen, most stocks are daily limit to close at the end in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock index rose more than 9% in a single day. Specifically, the Central Huijin to buy shares of banks, state-owned assets Committee to support central enterprises controlled by holdings or repurchase shares of listed companies on the stock market relatively large. the one hand, Huijin buying workers, the construction of three lines of the stock market, shares are down for the time invested large sums of admission its way through the capital approach to a direct impact on the index, to a certain extent, prevent the stock index continued to fall, has played a positive role in bailout; the other hand, the SAC's position is essentially the level of policy guidance from the recognition and support of the Central Huijin way of the company's stock holdings, for the subsequent repurchase and the holdings of the central large enterprises listed company controlled by the policy laid the foundation, pointed out the direction of central enterprises is expected to encourage more money into the stock market thus play a direct role in the tray.
(b), 10 November 2008 the State Council promulgated the top ten steps to identify trillion investment plan
2008 年 11 5 April,UGG boots clearance, Premier Wen Jiabao chaired a State Council executive meeting, the introduction of the ten measures to stimulate the economy. The meeting identified a number of investment arrangements, preliminary calculation of investment is required before the end of 2010 trillion yuan. This is to expand domestic demand and stimulate economic growth, promote industrial restructuring, will play to the enormous and positive role in the stability of the stock market conditions also have a direct stimulus.
essence, the amount of the investment program of up to a trillion yuan deal with the U.S. financial crisis, the macro context of the overall industrial structure of domestic the problem is not directly aimed at the stock market. However, the Government for the capital market represents a huge investment not only our government from 2009 to 2010 for the development of macro-economic expectations, and will inevitably cause the stock market sensitive A-share market gradually began to rebound, turnover began to enlarge, and benefit from the public policy infrastructure, railways and other sections are more ferocious rally, the stock market also emerged in a number of substantial increase in the representation of a bear market within a short time Ushimata. < br> The Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen into a means of freezing point from 2008, more than 1,600 points and 5,500 points in January 2008 rose to more than 1,900 points and 6,900 points. market trends return to stable, highlighting the effectiveness of rescue policies. < br> (c), 28 November 2008 the Social Security Fund: The additional equity investment
2008 年 11 月 28 日 learned from the National Social Security Fund Council, the National Social Security Fund Council will proceed with indexing investment to expand the scale of as listed shares to strategic investors after the CDB and the Agricultural Bank of China, Chongqing high-speed projects to provide loans, the Trust, to support financial reform and economic development. According to the National Social Security Fund Council chairman Dai describes the face of financial market volatility and greater investment risk, Social Security Fund to initiate a series of measures to promote their own development while promoting the development of capital markets, financial reform and economic development support.
as people a positive attitude to the attitude that the market jiacang, November jiacang 100 billion the amount of the stock market consuming a Shanghai and Shenzhen market also will rebound.
(d), the Commission outlined a series of rescue measures into
after 2008, faced with the acceleration of stock index down, the Commission have published a series of regulations and measures, including: July 18 response to the stock market five hot issues the Commission that will control the pace of issuing new shares; August 28, the Commission released the revised support; October 5, the Commission issued Trial Implementation Provisions heart, showing the positive and responsible attitude management, given the market and investors largely psychological comfort. But we must see that our legislative system based on the characteristics and powers of the Commission's own position, the SFC Most of these measures form part of the robustness of regulatory requirements, or macro-policy point. For example, the control that the IPO is only verbal, formal manner, has not issued specific implementation measures related; holdings of major shareholders, but the Commission did not Huijin large central enterprises to directly inject capital into the stock market, and not all aspects of the SAC to the implementation of specific policies on holdings of central enterprises to buy back shares in the details of the steps, so the rescue Huijin effect as to the significant holdings of three lines; start pilot market is small margin, and margin on the financing and the practical significance of the theoretical aspects of the current great debate remaining, less impact on the stock market; The SFC will is not the main non-cardinal small, but the main issue of exchangeable bonds on the threshold requirements are too high, the small non-difficult to meet their conditions, so this policy on the role of stable and the stock market still can not see big.
but we must be noted that although the Commission a series of moves for a short time stability of the stock market may get, but the rules of this series of system design is fully reflects the Commission for in-depth grasp of China's stock market represents the next series of reform positive direction, from this perspective, the progress is of great significance.
(e), other macroeconomic policies to remove the main outlines
bailout policies outside the relevant authorities in 2008 also introduced a series for the U.S. financial crisis in the context of policies of domestic macroeconomic trends, including the central bank reduced the benchmark interest rate of RMB deposits and loans, and lower engineering, agriculture, in construction, delivery and postal savings deposits of banks and other financial institutions large and small and medium deposit financial institutions of RMB deposit reserve ratio, and continue to earthquake stricken areas and rural financial institutions to implement preferential deposit reserve ratio and so on. these macro monetary policy, although not directly aimed at the short term the stock market, but in the long perspective, the loose gradual monetary policy through indirect impact on China's stock market will have a positive good long-term development.
In summary, the face of the great bear market of 2008, our government and the relevant regulatory authorities launched a multi-angle of a deep-seated series of rescue measures. analysis, the ship rescue the basic objectives of the policy is to prevent the stock market continued to fall, that was the end for the stock market and rising as much as possible for the stock market rally. Of course, at this stage does not have the stock markets under ascribed a major reversal in a sufficient condition, but we can not deny the 2008 bailout policy is the effect of .2008 has become history, the 2009 Red Bull has been approached to us, and how to solve the Chinese stock market and the securities market development a series of questions, then become a future worthy of our thoughtful historical topics.
write: Renmin University of China Yang Wei